Market Driven Afforestation: Trajectories in social resilience and environmental sustainability under land-use intensification

In this project, we analyzed how a rapid, market driven land-use change from agriculture to forestry, currently occurring in the Amhara region in Ethiopia, affects social resilience and environmental sustainability.

Our aim was to identify and describe positive and negative trajectories in

(i) rural household income and gender equity,

(ii) agricultural production and food security,

(iii) water-balance at landscape level and downstream,

(iv) carbon sequestration in biomass and soil at landscape level and

(v) soil fertility and long-term sustainability of agricultural and forest production.

The project combined expertise in house hold economy, gender, water and soil management from Ethiopia and Sweden. We used qualitative and quantitative participatory methods, spatial biophysical measurements and modelling to establish current trajectories and test our hypotheses.

Thereafter, we utilized a participatory landscape scale scenario development model for an evidence based participatory process where we together with stakeholders modelled potential future trajectories of social resilience and production sustainability in the production landscape.

Project output will be used to initiate a policy development dialogue with relevant actors. Emerging markets are becoming an important driver for future land-use change in SSA. This project will provide knowledge and method output important for evidence based policy development on resilience and sustainability.