The recent wildfires in the Los Angeles area have once again underscored the increasing frequency and severity of forest fires across the globe. To shed light on this critical issue, we spoke with Igor Drobyshev, a forest fire expert and senior lecturer at the Southern Swedish Forest Research Centre. Igor’s research offers valuable perspectives on the prediction, prevention, and mitigation of wildfires, as well as the broader challenges and opportunities in managing fire-prone landscapes.
"There are two key aspects to consider: the climate variability and forest fuels", Igor explains. Although we cannot control climate variability, we may rely on large-scale ocean circulation patterns to provide critical data for predicting climatic conditions that may elevate the risk of forest fires. Analyses of atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns across the boreal zone of the Northern Hemisphere indicate a good potential to predict high-risk periods with a lead time of one to three months. This knowledge can significantly enhance fire preparedness.
We can manage forest fuels to some degree, and it is in this direction we should work to mitigate future climate risks. On the forest management side, Igor emphasizes the importance of reducing homogeneity in forest stands. "Large, homogenous forest stands of conifers significantly increase the risk of fire," he notes. Forest management strategies must prioritize diversity by incorporating a mix of tree species, which, in turn, allow for a mix of fuel types. “By increasing diversity and reducing homogeneity, we can create forests that are not only less prone to fire but also more resilient ecosystems overall,” he adds.
California’s wildfire challenges highlight issues with strategic planning. "Wildfires are a natural and expected occurrence in this landscape," Igor explains. "They are not exceptions but rather part of the ecological norm." Yet, the region’s preparedness and prevention strategies reveal significant gaps.
Urban development in fire-prone areas is a major concern. In California, homes are often built in high-risk zones, sometimes without adequate fire safety regulations. Unlike Sweden, where strict regulations limit construction in hazardous areas, much of the responsibility in the U.S. falls on property owners. This decentralized approach, coupled with expensive fire insurance, leaves many residents vulnerable.
Another critical issue is the accumulation of fuel in forests. Decades ago, the U.S. implemented programs to suppress wildfires as quickly as possible. While effective in the short term, these efforts inadvertently allowed for the build-up of flammable material in forests over time. Combined with a changing climate, this has made the situation significantly more challenging. Although vast sums are now spent on firefighting efforts, this reactive approach does not address the root causes.
Igor advocates for proactive solutions, including better urban planning that accounts for wildfire risks and stricter building regulations to create defensible spaces around homes. Additionally, long-term forest management strategies must focus on reducing fuel loads and adapting to natural fire dynamics.
While communities and individuals can take steps to limit the likelihood of ignitions, their ability to mitigate the risks of large-scale wildfires is limited. "Large fires are preconditioned by weather variability, fuel types, and fuel conditions," Drobyshev points out. These factors are often beyond the control of local communities. However, certain measures, such as creating defensible spaces, adhering to fire-safe building practices, and supporting policies that promote sustainable forest management, can collectively contribute to reducing risks.
A controlled forest fire test in Hagestad, Sweden with Igor Drobyshevs Phd student Olga Wepryk
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