Data synthesis and predictive model

 Data from WP 2-4 will be synthesized into predictive models (Figure 2). We will use structural equation modeling (SEM), which enables the simultaneous testing of multiple statistical relationships and of direct and indirect consequences of experimental treatments or other external drivers.

We will investigate the effects of;

• latitude (indirect via changes in temperature and biotic communities as well as direct),
• drought (continuous: measured soil moisture of control and drought replicates from all five locations)
• genotype on multivariate plant phenotypes and their fitness, via changes in specific genes or directly through phenotypic plasticity.

Interactions between genotype, latitude, and drought (G × E × E) will be included, as well as genetic correlations between traits. Non-linear effects of climate change drivers will be included to test for potential tipping points.

Based on this model, we will inter- and extrapolate across Europe the expected adaptation or maladaptation of local genotypes under current and future climatic conditions (based on IPCC reports). High-resolution maps of local adaptation across Europe will be generated.

Figure 2. Effects of climate change drivers and candidate plant genes on plant metabolites and resulting functional traits, ultimately affecting plant fitness. Climate change effects can be direct or mediated by altered herbivore (invertebrate) communities.