Marine heatwaves can affect fish and other organisms, and extreme storms can limit fishing opportunities. Climate change increases the occurrence of such extreme weather at sea. During 2024-2026 we are therefore studying the effect of marine heatwaves on fish and food webs using models and experiments, and analyze the risks to Swedish fisheries posed by extreme weather. Together with representatives for Swedish fisheries, management agencies and stakeholders we are also developing the first joint risk analyses of climate changes for Swedish fisheries. The risk analysis is a prerequisite for future climate adaptation of Swedish fisheries, supporting fishing businesses and fisheries management.
Our goal with the project
Our goal is to increase the understanding of the integrated risks that extreme marine weather events pose to fisheries, and develop a food web based risk analysis together with representatives for Swedish fisheries and management authorities.
We do this to support the development of measures to adapt fisheries management to reduce the effects of extreme weather, mitigate the risks and at the same time increase the resilience of exploited Baltic Sea ecosystems and Swedish fisheries.
NEWS in the project
Risks to Swedish fisheries posed by extreme weather is being analyzed!
The joint development with representatives for Swedish fisheries, management agencies and stakeholders is started at a workshop at SLU in November 2024, and continues with interviews and model development during spring 2025.
What do we do in the project?
We combine different methods for ecological and economic analyses to develop risk analyses and decision support. This includes analyzing extreme weather from data on sea temperature and wind conditions. We also test the effect of heatwaves on fish and their prey in mesocosm experiments, and develop a temperature-dependent model of herring populations. We use the model to study how heat waves during different parts of the year affect herring dynamics and fisheries catches.
Together with representatives for commercial fisheries organizations, recreational fisheries and stakeholders in the archipelago, as well as county boards and the Swedish agency for marine and water management, we develop a risk analysis of how Swedish fisheries and their stakeholders are affected by extreme weather. Using an economic fisheries policy model, we also analyze how extreme weather affect catch opportunities and costs in different fleet segments of the Swedish commercial fisheries.
We combine the ecological and economic consequences and risks to fisheries in a decision support model, in which the effects of different decisions can be evaluated. The long-term aim is to continue to develop this model together with responsible agencies into a future decision support for climate adaption of Swedish fisheries and fisheries management.
